Weather Club

Reigate Grammar School weather club

ADD your forecast data here:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1cM5nT6PDr4_ki_khK_WHGz30UHXsT0lEUWB8usuEQRQ/viewform?usp=send_form

Use these LINKS for forecasting:

SYNOPTIC TRENDS and PATTERNS: what’s the weather doing now?

ENSEMBLE

SYNOPTIC

ANOMALY

1. www.metbrief.com : MetOffice synoptic analysis and forecast charts to 5 days : shows HIGH and LOW pressure cells and FRONTS with expected movement over 5 days.
2. London GEFS chart : use this ensemble forecast to get an overview of expected overall trends: temperature (upper) and rainfall: more spread of runs = less confidence; MEAN run = RED
3. London GEFS pressure : as above but with PRESSURE trend for Reigate / London
4. temperature anomaly : Europe temperature anomaly: is it overall warmer or colder than long term average?
5. precipitation anomaly : Europe precipitation anomaly: is it overall wetter or drier than long term average?

FORECASTS: charts up to 360 hours / 15 days / 2 weeks ahead

GFS

JETSTREAM

WIND

Use this for steps 1-5 below www.theweatheroutlook.com

1. JETSTREAM forecast: how strong and is it north or south of the UK? so how “unsettled”?
2. Check the current GFS run : use up to around 5 days, then compare with GEFS ensemble below
3. Check the GEFS ensemble charts: use mean for longer range forecasts beyond 5 days+
4. Compare GFS with ECM (European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting): a reliable model with more restricted availability: use to compare with GFS/GEFS : is there agreement? If so, proceed with more confidence!
5. Enter daily data into the form above from The Weather Outlook to find wind direction and max gusts, rain (when? how intense?), cloud cover, Tmax and Tmin.

for total rain accumulation check this: www.weatheronline.co.uk

For more detail use HIGH RESOLUTION forecasts up to 48 hours ahead

SKEW-T

HI-RES RAIN

Hi-RES TOTAL

• http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= : for detailed 48 hours forecasts use Euro4
• http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=25&map=5 : Hi-RES 72 hour TOTAL rainfall
• http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=modtemps&MODELLTYP=4&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=u3764&PERIOD=  : Skew-T charts for technical thunderstorm / hail / snow forecasting
• http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=modtemps&MODELLTYP=4&BASE=-&VAR=modtemps&WMO=03772&HH=12&ARCHIV=0
• http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/ : UK thunderstorm risk