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Our miserable cut-off cool pool LOW pressure which has caused a wet and windy weekend for the SE (Reigate: 29mph gusts and 33mm:13th wettest place in the UK!) is set to be booted east by mid-week as a zonal west-east jetstream makes a return.  Watch the animation below and see how the SW flow makes temperatures warm up over the UK as air is dragged up from the SW by a strong Atlantic LOW pressure sitting off the west of Ireland. The Atlantic is up to 4c warmer than usual (check yellow and orange colours on the SST anomaly map) and the air we will get this week will be almost exclusively from that direction. The recent Arctic blast will be a distant memory and Tmax temps could exceed 17c by Thursday! The down side is that a humid SW flow will bring attendant windy conditions and frontal rainfall to much of the country, but least to the SE. The early part of the week looks showery with Wednesday being the wettest and Thursday the warmest. 

Meanwhile, consider Cyclone Phailin which made landfall on the east coast of India today: it delivered 250mm of rain to some parts and 160mph winds.  The evacuation of nearly one million people seems to have been successful in mitigating hazard impacts and reducing loss of life from this powerful Level 6 cyclone, the strongest in that region for 10 years.  A triumph of hazard mitigation: the West and US could learn a lot from this example of hazard management.

Update Weds 20:25hrs: Gale warning for South coast and exposed hills: SW wind 30mph+ GUSTING 40-50mph Thursday pm. Channel will experience v strong winds.

A deepening LOW pressure is winding up off the west coast of the British Isles and will cross the UK this week bringing cloud, rain and strong winds and cooler temperatures.  Reigate and the SE, however, will remain comparatively sheltered from the worst of the rainfall, probably only amounting to 10mm over the next 10 days or so, which isn’t much compared with the deluge elsewhere.  The first fronts make an entrance tomorrow with moderately heavy rain for Wednesday, slowly clearing off in the afternoon. The most interesting bit of weather looks like Thursday overnight into Friday when strong south westerly winds circulating around the LOW cross our region, gusts around 50mph are possible in exposed areas like the North Downs around Reigate.  The BIG map shows wind arrows circulating around the centre of the LOW as it moves across Northern England and Southern Scotland (wind speed in mph). Friday looks pretty wet all day and Saturday could bring a threat of thundery showers.  The unsettled regime continues with blustery westerly winds throughout the weekend keeping temperatures around the mid teens. Weekend looks blustery and unsettled with showers Saturday, some thundery possible.
The longer term May forecast looks rather unsettled especially for Reigate with LOW pressure likely to sit over Europe bringing rain to the SE, while higher pressure sits over the North and West of the UK bringing better conditions to those regions. The graph shows more rain through the rest of May showing this sort of set up. Lovely!


Spring 2013 is likely to make some false starts in Reigate and the SE of England.  This week starting 4 March certainly looks warmer but more unsettled with some rain returning as Atlantic influences and LOW pressure take over as the HIGH drifts off south east over the continent.  It could reach pleasant max temperatures of 13ºC mid-week in a warm bath of southerly winds but these will be accompanied by some rain. The sketch map shows what models are predicting for Spring after this warm spell ends by this coming weekend.  The medium range charts see LOW pressure moving down over the continent and a ridge of HIGH pressure building back up to the north of the UK over the coming weekend.

march slide downThis could mean cool easterly winds returning from 9/10 March dragging temperatures back to rather wintry like figures by next weekend and beyond. Temperatures could take a significant fall, not as harsh as mid-winter, but certainly down to daytime temperatures of 5ºC again or perhaps even lower; in any case, much cooler than expected for March and possibly even cold enough to bring SNOW back on the agenda!  The north of the UK will fair better if this scenario pulls off update: cold plunge arrives from NE – which will be hit worst … anyhow, expect some ups and downs in the weather and a big false start to Spring.