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The potential for a major storm hitting the South of the UK on Monday remains. The exact track and intensity are still uncertain, varying from N France to Scotland and having varying impacts on the south of the UK, from very little to a lot, depending on the final track.  However, best to be forewarned! Several models show a vigorous LOW developing to the SW of the UK due to an extremely lively 180mph jetstreak or potential stingjet over the Channel. This has the effect of lifting air rapidly off the surface and lowering pressure rapidly.  A rapid lowering of pressure to produce a storm is sometimes called a “bomb” and is similar to the propagation of the October 1987 storm (not a hurricane!).
As it looks at the moment… the LOW will cross the UK from SW to NE and develop Force 10 SW gales in the Channel during Monday morning and, as it moves into the North Sea, stronger winds are possible up to Storm Force 11 with potential for extremely rough seas and 70-80mph winds.

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Inland winds will be less powerful but gusts could reach 50-60mph widely in the worst case scenario. All from the S or SW and, later on veering to the NW. Waves of 3-5metres in the Channel are possible and 10 metres in exposed waters.
Overnight Sunday and Monday morning seem the most likely periods of highest winds for the South. The systems moves away rapidly into the north sea and winds ameliorate to sunshine and showers.  Thereafter, the rest of the week continues to look unsettled with wind and rain.  One to watch definitely!

Watch the propagation of wave heights across the Atlantic as the mother LOW moves in during the early part of next week.


WEATHER ALERT FOR UK AND REIGATE:

Saturday am: heavy snow falling across our region: check twitter for updates.  A major wintry weather event is unfolding tomorrow and over the weekend across the UK.  This could bring potentially hazardous weather Friday through Sunday almost anywhere in the UK so if you are travelling please take care and check weather warnings for your destination. Reigate remains comparatively sheltered throughout but even here we have the threat of seriously miserable and cold weather with an evil mix of heavy rain, cold winds and sleet turning to snow over this weekend.  Snow amounts and depths for us still uncertain though.

Cold Polar Easterly winds will increasingly undercut and push back the advancing warm air brought in by a vigorous depression out west in the Atlantic. Where these air masses meet is essentially where the heaviest rain and snow will fall: the fronts move north on Friday and then move south on Saturday as the cold air wins out over the warm: it is the move south on Saturday which could bring some SNOW to Reigate. The SW is due to get torrential rain, whilst anywhere north of the M4, especially on high ground, could see heavy snow and drifting in high winds. Reigate remains comparatively sheltered throughout this episode BUT if you are travelling anywhere else do heed weather warnings.
Whilst Reigate will escape the worst of all this, we are due to have a pretty cold, windy, very wet and sleety and at times snowy weekend weather wise!
Friday sees fronts crossing the country and bringing increasing rain to Reigate during the day. Overnight into Saturday might see this rain turning increasingly icy and sleety. Wind chill 0°C to -4°C.
Saturday will be a truly horrible day with temperatures falling throughout. Cold winds (feeling -5°C) and heavy rain will turn increasingly sleety and turn to snow anytime but with greatest risk in the afternoon.  By the afternoon, however, the heaviest precipitation should be dying out over Reigate so any snowfall should be light by that stage.  Saturday could see totals over 20mm of precipitation (mostly in the morning as rain); snow lying could amount from 0cm to a few cm especially on the Downs by evening. Any snow conditions will be worse to the north of the region and over high ground.
Sunday sees even colder weather and a threat of further snowfall from nearby fronts to the south.  Still uncertainty around this so keep watching forecasts. Wind chill -8°C so feeling very cold indeed.  Drier later though.
The rest of the week looks cold, frosty and dry with gradual recovery of temperatures and the hint of more spring-like temperatures next weekend!
Take care this weekend if you are travelling anywhere in the UK: floods in the SW, blizzards and snow up North. If you don’t need to travel, you should probably wait until Sunday or Monday when things have calmed down.

What a difference a year makes: check out the daffodil pictures: taken one year apart!

update Friday pm: much as stated above with main snow zone staying north of London for longer on some models: filthy horrible day mostly sleet icy rain Sat; poss light snow later pm as cold air arrives; cold wind; colder on sunday and into next week. Cold and frosty next week. #notspring 

Weather warning for Reigate: latest models agree with previous post and slightly nudge up the potential risk of some snow Sunday pm to Monday for Reigate. (Remember we are on the edge of the snow/rain boundary so small changes in the final track of the LOW may mean we see NONE at all or more than expected!) Nevetheless, depth of snow by Monday morning anywhere from 0cm to 4cm (esp on hills).  Rain and sleet will dominate the day but Sunday evening and overnight is when snow could fall.

Sunday-Monday night will freeze so any lying snow and icy surfaces could remain until later in the day. Be aware: Monday commute could potentially be slippery: certainly if you are going anywhere east or north of the region. Temperatures reach +4ºC Monday will melt any remaining snow. Remainder of week remains cold with possible snow showers mid-week.

 

The predicted change in weather has arrived. This was predicted 10 days ago by the models and is arriving exactly on time!
Torrential rain and strong winds are predicted to pass through during Friday. Winds gusting 40mph+ and very heavy rainfall, especially around mid-morning / lunchtime are likely for Reigate. Rainfall accumulations could top 30mm in 24 hours with half of that falling between 10am and 1pm Friday.
The milder air from the South West has arrived already in our area but is still hovering aloft over the very cold surface air. Temperatures have already moved above freezing and will continue to climb throughout tonight and right the way through tomorrow reaching a balmy 11C by Friday afternoon! Rain should clear by the early evening.  As the song goes (not)… “What a difference an air mass makes, 24 little hours!!” Apologies to Dinah Washington.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmBxVfQTuvI