Archives For rain

31-10-2013 18-34-28Mary arrives today over SE England. She is the first of our three “storms” with Mungo and Midge following hard on her high heels this weekend, although the lack of wind over the SE inland hardly makes her worthy of such a title, she could bring gales to the Channel though. Anyhow, for Reigate and SE today she will be damp, cloudy and dreary and largely windless today as the LOW passes directly over the SE tonight. Her main threat is rain, and whilst some models still don’t make anything of this, the UKMET certainly does, with 20-30mm falling quite widely across a narrow corner of the SE as mass uplift of air takes place within the core low central pressure. However, she is not a deep low and winds will be remarkably light inland.  Any heavy rain will fall this evening and overnight on wet ground and this could cause local flooding.  There is also a tiny risk of a thunderstorm overnight for Reigate embedded in the heaviest rain rolling up from the south.

Reigate can expect a dreary and damp day all day with poss heavy rain overnight causing potentially localised flooding by Saturday morning.
Winds get up markedly tomorrow Saturday as Mungo arrives. He, along with Midge overnight Sunday into Monday, will be more lively and ultimately drag in cooler air with Tmax temps by Monday not even reaching 9c for much of the country.

This is a temporary cool-off as warmer air arrives from the SW during next week. Remaining unsettled.

She just won’t let up… enjoy the next few days of relative calm because the Atlantic is going to throw more storms at the UK Friday and through the weekend, so bonfire goers and organizers please check forecasts for details as they emerge!
For the SE and Reigate it is looking wet and windy with Friday being possibly very wet indeed in the SE with a weak Jude-like copy-cat appearing from the SW. By no means as strong as Jude, but it has uncanny similarities.  Saturday sees a monster appear to the NW. It has a deeper central pressure than Jude had when she left but, crucially, this one FILLS and weakens as she crosses the UK. Very tight isobars off shore will give NW UK a bashing on Saturday and the SE and E windy conditions on Sunday. Wind speeds will be less than Jude for us but still pretty blustery. These two storms may well pour cold water on bonfire night for many around the country.
Things still uncertain about this family of LOWS so check forecasts and details as they emerge.

30-10-2013 07-08-45

 

Forecast models are building a significant autumnal stormy picture across the UK next week. Depressions sweeping in from the west on a lively jetstream are looking likely to swing south and bring high winds, cooler temperatures and plenty of rain, especially to the west, but significantly also to the south.  Gale force winds will be significant in coastal and mountain areas if these models come right.  It’s early days but more model agreement means more confidence is building in this scenario with only the ECMWF finding potential calmer conditions with high pressure.  Watch the temps fall away from recent mild conditions as these LOWS also drag in cooler NW winds… more normal for the time of year.  Tmax 9 or 10c compared with current 17c. Tmin 5 or 6c compared with low teens now. In the wind it’ll feel much cooler than the balmy conditions we have got right now.

end of october cool off
This situation is extremely mobile and one to watch carefully, but increasing agreement between models (GEM, GFS, UKMO) shows increasing confidence in something wicked this way coming! The situation brews over the weekend and unleashes early in the week with another storm later. Check back for details as they emerge.