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Storm track early next week remains uncertain on these runs. One to watch as things develop. It is fairly certain to be a cooler and unsettled start to the week but the extent of this will be determined by the exact track of the jetstream and the LOW it propagates.  There are signals of a HIGH developing midweek next week for a respite, at least.

Update: gales for UK coasts from Sat – Mon, significantly for Channel from am Monday gusting Force 10 potentially 60mph. 30mph+ inland.

This will be no help at all … but the most widely used weather models are completely at odds over half term weather forecasts next week. The GFS (US) system shows warmer, unsettled Atlantic westerlies blowing back through on a perky jetstream and places a HIGH to the south of the UK bringing in milder SW winds for a time. The ECM model (European) has completely the opposite and fixes a HIGH over the NE and puts the UK firmly back in the fridge with a fierce easterly: snow again for the east. The GEFS model run sits on the fence and puts us somehere in between the two other scenarios. This illustrates how each model has slight in-built bias and it is up to experienced meteorologists to pick the one that works best in each type of weather flow.  It also shows how forecast models for more than 200 hours into the future are sometimes unreliable, can only be used to show broad patterns of developing weather and should be used with caution. Meanwhile, the remainder of this week looks drier (except for Thursday!) for Reigate, a warm front brings sleet then rain on Thursday and a HIGH should build in bringing drier and BRIGHTER weather Friday and into the weekend.  Bring back the sun…Reigate last saw the sun on Monday 9 Feb at 8.30am.

The weekend sees an atmospheric battle taking place overhead between tropical and polar air masses. The video below shows the stage being set for this battle: watch the westerly winds pushing against the cold polar North-Easterlies sweeping down from Scandinavia and meeting over… well, Reigate!! Anyhow, this weekend temperatures will fall throughout Saturday from 3°C to freezing by late afternoon. Rain could turn sleety from mid-afternoon onwards as the coldest air pushes in and light snow is possible, dying out early Sunday morning. Sunday looks dry and cold, feeling like -7°C in a chilly northerly wind. Monday is set to be even colder, staying near freezing all day and feeling like -8°C in the wind, but dry (though latest is for snowy front moving south according to UKMO). The rest of the week is unclear but likely to stay cold until at least Wednesday with more significant snow likely Tuesday. Longer term predictions suggest January will stay cool, with a few milder interludes.

Hang on a minute!
It seems the “beast from the east” will only tip-toe into the UK this week and then rapidly turn tail and scamper back off to the Steppes. So much for any real weather drama this week here in the South East: it looks like any cold temperatures will be short-lived and milder conditions from the Atlantic will break through by the end of the week: the map shows warmer & wetter SW winds by Friday 14 Dec seeing off any chilly Easterlies.
Snow probably for the North of the country only on the leading edge of fronts and not for us down here in Reigate. SO… you can put away your snow boots and Cossack hats for a while yet.
Nevertheless, the overall conditions are still nudging us towards cooler than average.