Archives For long range

Thursday pm and overnight to Friday looks like seeing heavy possibly thundery rain crossing the SE and Reigate.  As the Scandinavian HIGH slips south the LOW sitting to the west of the UK will sweep fronts across the country which could bring up to 10mm (max) of rain for Reigate.  The rain is likely to start Thursday pm, become heavy quickly early overnight and peter out to showers on Friday. Thursday will also be breezy, especially on the east coast. Saturday looks drier and brighter as a fresher westerly airflow arrives.

Perhaps a more interesting outlook is the appearance of some interesting winter forecasts for 2013-2014. Various models are illustrating a cold winter for the UK with northern blocking and cold easterlies, not dissimilar to the 2012-13, with an especially late cold spell in Spring.  Dig out those snow shovels, well, maybe you can wait a month or two yet!

For more details on the 2013-2014 winter forecast please visit our expert long-range weather friend Ollie at

cfs december run

Chilly December… this is the anomaly 500hPa chart showing temperatures at approx 5000m (half way up through the atmosphere) and show how far up or down from the average they are predicted to be, they are NOT surface temps! It gives a good idea of a cool pool of air over Europe and the UK and warmer than usual blocked conditions over the Arctic (perfect for sending cold air our way).

cold march 2014This chart shows 2m surface anomalies for March and shows a colder than usual Europe with a really cold Russia.  Any easterly winds at this time of year would be bitterly cold for the UK.

Some models are predicting a COLD northern hemisphere winter this year: the Japanese global forecast and UK Met Office long range both agree that average temps will be about 1.5C below normal.  This means perhaps 4 or 5 spells of really cold weather interspersed with warmer spells.

Dig out your winter coats over half term: will winter start in mid november as this CFS model suggests?