Archives For hurricane

2016-01-15_22-13-03

Hurricane Alex and the UK 14/01/2016

Satellite pictures have emerged showing how truly amazing Hurricane Alex really was. These satellite pictures (courtesy MeteoSat, Dundee sat.dundee.ac.uk and eumetsat/eosdis) show that Alex is one of the most northerly and easterly forming Atlantic Hurricanes (second ever, in any month to form north of 30N) and rare for January at this extreme northerly and easterly location.  In typically understated fashion, the official National Hurricane Center tropical discussion hinted at the astonishing nature of this event as the diminutive storm transitioned to a Category 1 hurricane on 14 January.

“Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane. A distinct eye is present… ” (11am 14 jan 2016)

2016-01-15_22-25-59

Hurricane Alex (Cat1), just before downgrading to a Tropical Storm, near the UK 15/01/2015

Alex is very likely to be the closest January hurricane to UK shores but Fran and Hannah were Cat 1 hurricanes that came closer, albeit both in October.

2016-01-15_23-36-08

Hannah and Fran Cat 1 hurricanes tracked close to the UK

It is quite common for ex-hurricanes to track across the UK (e.g. Bertha Aug 2014) each year as extra-tropical storms but usually these happen in late summer and Autumn, at the mature end of the hurricane season.  Nevertheless, a hurricane (Category 1) forming on the European side of the Atlantic so far north and east in January, with snow clearly visible on the UK hills is truly amazing.

Some meteorologists think that a hurricane visiting Britain is possible before 2030.

2016-01-14_18-36-44

Alex becomes a hurricane 14 Jan 2016 (image EUMETSAT)

Alex is the first Atlantic hurricane to form in the month of January since 1938 and is the first Atlantic hurricane to exist during January since Alice in 1955.

Hurricane Alex, located in the sub-tropical Mid-Atlantic south of the Azores at approximately 30N 30W, was named on Wednesday by the National Hurricane Center as a sub-tropical storm lingering in the tropical Mid Atlantic took on more hurricane characteristics.

2016-01-14_21-33-57

Hurricane Alex 14/01/2016

Despite sea surface temperatures of only 20C, wind speeds in excess of 80mph started circulating around a tight hurricane eye.  The notable northerly formation would be remarkable in summer, let alone January.

So Alex is certainly remarkable but not entirely unique because two other hurricanes have occurred in January since records began in 1851.

2016-01-14_20-37-17

Hurricane Alex’s eye 14/01/2016

Hurricanes usually form June 1 to November 30, the official “hurricane season”.  This is towards the end of long hot summers, when Tropical seas are at their warmest. Hurricanes are named starting from “A” as the first one of the season.  It is extremely unusual for hurricanes to form in January, and making landfall over the Azores so far north will almost certainly be a first for any hurricane.

2016-01-14_18-34-26

How freaky is Hurricane Alex?

A key ingredient of hurricane formation is a warm sea surface, usually at least 27C to at least 60 metres.  Warm waters fuel the energy hurricanes feed on and, through evaporation of vast quantities of sea water and release of latent heat into the atmosphere, convection is caused and wind speeds increase to a sustained 74mph into a hurricane eye.

2016-01-14_18-37-26

Hurricane Alex, spot the eye (image EUMETSAT)

Alex has formed over relatively cool SSTs, around 20C, which would usually not give birth to a hurricane.

2016-01-14_20-29-15

usual hurricane formation

Meteorologists suggest that unusually COOL upper air temperatures in an upper trough over have assisted convection and the uplift of air to create thundery conditions around a hurricane eye.

2016-01-14_18-39-42

sea surface temperature anomalies Alex

Like other recent remarkable weather events, Alex’s special early arrival is not quite unprecedented and two hurricanes have occurred in the Atlantic in January.  An unnamed hurricane formed in 1938 in the tropical Atlantic, with winds of 70 knots, but only lasted as a Cat 1 hurricane for one day.

2016-01-14_19-08-09

In addition, Hurricane Alice formed on December 31 1954 and lasted as a Cat 1 for 5 days into Jan 1955 before weakening to a tropical storm.  She had a slightly strange SW track towards Venezuela.  Also, interestingly, 1954-55 was a weak La Nina year, strengthening to a moderate La Nina year.  La Nina years are more conducive to Atlantic hurricanes whereas our current very strong, but gradually declining, El Nino state is associated with fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

2016-01-14_19-11-23

Geographically, both Alice and “the unnamed one” formed much further south (around 20N) in the tropical Atlantic than our Alex (around 30N).  So Alex can certainly claim to be an unusual storm because it is so far North AND so far out of the hurricane season.  This might even qualify him as “freak” status.

Currently, Alex is a small storm with a tight hurricane eye where sustained winds exceed 85mph.  It is not expected to strengthen much or last more than a few days as a hurricane system because the track is northerly and this will take it over ever cooler Atlantic waters.  The Azores is on the track of Alex and is likely to experience a highly unusual January hurricane in the next 12 hours.

2016-01-14_17-51-44

Hurricane Alex intensity Cat1

The storm will lower intensity and dissipate over cooler than average North Atlantic waters before making “landfall” most likely somewhere near the southern tip of Greenland.

2016-01-14_17-55-02

Hurricane Alex track January 2016

Here’s some expert explanation of the development of Alex from the very excellent Mark Sudduth of hurricanetrack.com

Alex started life as a tropical disturbance near the Bahamas over unusually warm sea surface temperatures emanating out of the Gulf.

The sub-tropical disturbance never threatened land, except momentarily to risk a nor-easter for the Atlantic US coast.  His track took him safely into the Atlantic.

However, despite his remote location, Alex did impact our European weather indirectly. Earlier this week a trough disruption took some of his tropical energy into Europe via the Bay of Biscay.

This lowered pressure over Europe sufficient to allow an Arctic plunge to push further south across the UK and into the continent.

Warm air from Alex’s sub-tropical source has also possibly helped build pressure to the north over the Atlantic that assisted a tighter pressure gradient over the UK allowing a more brisk Arctic wind chill to build.  This same high pressure will keep him stuck in the Atlantic until he dissipates near southern Greenland.

2016-01-14_18-44-09

Hurricane Alex and HIGH pressure to the North

However, the existence of Alex has possibly thrown weather prediction models into a spin because the forecasts from models, even short term, are now in a good deal of disagreement about next week.

2016-01-14_17-32-03

models completely disagree… Alex’s influence?

So perhaps Alex has broken more things than just weather records!

and finally… is global warming to blame for Alex?  Well, typically, the answer is both Yes and No!

Read this interesting article below here to get the idea why..

http://www.cato.org/blog/buzz-alex-global-warming

http://mashable.com/2016/01/14/hurricane-alex-forms-january/?utm_cid=mash-com-Tw-main-link#i2kSmA3cnGq1

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/alex-becomes-the-atlantics-first-january-hurricane-since-1955

Hurricane Pali has also been setting records in the Pacific http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/hurricane-pali-sets-pacific-record-160113090131993.html

2015-09-12_15-31-07

Atlantic chart NOAA Sat 12/09/2015

The chart above shows an active situation developing in the Atlantic with LOWS offshore ready to bring some unsettled weather to the UK this week.  Reigate has enjoyed a splendidly bright and sunny Saturday but notable rainfall totals could add up this week.  A series of LOW pressure systems, arriving from the SW will force meetings between cool polar and warm tropical airmasses.  These systems are likely to bring wet and windy weather at times, especially Monday and possibly even more mid-week.  In between, brighter weather is also possible, especially Tuesday.  Before then, Sunday sees the chance of some heavy rain clipping into our region from the south east.. potentially heavy if it spills over from Kent. (stayed SE)

(scroll down if you just want to see RunReigate outlook!) 🙂
2015-09-12_12-09-14

rainfall totals ensemble comparisons

The general theme this coming week is for an increasingly perky autumnal jetstream to deepen Atlantic LOWS and bring them up to the UK from the SW with attendant rain and wind at times.

In Reigate, according to our longer term average climatology, we get our heaviest rainfall when winds arrive from a southerly direction, which will be the case periodically through this week as LOWS track to our NW.  The chart below shows how southerly winds will effect Reigate on Monday and Wednesday, and the rainfall chart for Wednesday shows potentially heavy rain that might be expected then.

The first LOW modelled to track SW to NE arrives Sunday night and into Monday.  Fronts attached to this LOW will bring wet weather into the SE and especially across the coast and Channel during Monday, some of this could be heavy and thundery in nature with cold upper air temperatures steepening lapse rates.  Windy weather, especially nearer the coast, is likely too with tightly packed isobars.  During Monday into early Tuesday SW convective wind gusts of 30-40mph are possible inland across the SE and 50mph+ in the Channel at times.

2015-09-12_15-57-22

September LOW England

By mid-week a more intense depression could quickly follow bringing more interesting unsettled weather to the UK.  On the charts below the LOW off Nova Scotia is the remnants of a now dissipated ex-tropical depression called Henri.  This system is not much to speak of at the moment, however, some models bring the remnant energy of Henri into Biscay by mid-week where it is forecast to merge and deepen with an Atlantic LOW under the jetstream and approach the UK from the SW possibly bringing an early taste of autumnal stormy weather through the UK.  This is only one outcome, so worth watching.

Extra-tropical storms inject tropical moisture and heat and energy into the Atlantic and are common in Autumn (Humberto, Cristobal in recent years).  These decaying tropical systems can decay and die mid-ocean without ceremony but sometimes they meet the jetstream, mix with polar air at the polar front and then, under certain conditions, they can intensify into significant mid-latitude depressions, enhanced with extra-tropical zest!  In contrast, sometimes these characters build HIGH pressure by pumping up ridges of high pressure with warm air if they track to the NW of the UK (like Humberto Sept 2015).  However, several models show ex-Henri riding a perky jetstream across the Atlantic this week, merging with an Atlantic low and intensifying in Biscay before pouncing directly into the UK from the SW mid-week. Southerly gales in the Channel and wet weather across in the SE are possible in this scenario but the exact track will make a big difference as to what we end up getting.  Watch forecasts for this one, as Reigate is in a moist southerly flow on most models.

2015-09-12_15-09-29

Wednesday-Thursday LOW for the UK

Further ahead, Run Reigate on Sunday 20 September is a major event for the town: a half marathon and 10km attended by thousands. The weather outlook for this event currently looks favourable, although it is too far off to be certain.  After a fairly dire week of weather coming up, most models favour the idea of pressure rising into the weekend of 19-20 September, at least in the south of England.  This would be good news for Run Reigate.

2015-09-12_13-54-17

pressure rising for Run Reigate event 2015

Cluster models also show more members putting the SE in reasonable conditions with a HIGH forecast on many runs building from the south or SW, however, you can spot that other clusters show short wave troughs in the broadly zonal flow that returns quite quickly with fronts (probably quite weak) potentially nudging into the SE as pressure potentially falls away somewhat through the weekend.  Anyhow, this a long way off so not confident with any forecast.

2015-09-12_23-48-52

Ensemble charts shown above and below give optimism that the unsettled weather arriving this week will broadly improve for the Run Reigate event. However, tropical elements roaming the Atlantic often cause problems for weather models and so we will have to wait until nearer the time for more certainty.

The 500mb pressure anomaly chart below from the ECMWF (below left) also shows a nice High pressure building up from Europe into Southern England in the 7-10 day mean outlook, starting on 19 Sept. The GFS is less convinced about building such a significant high pressure. Let’s hope the ECM performs better this week.  Time will tell so watch this space and twitter for updates.  http://www.jellyfish.co.uk/runreigate/

2015-09-12_17-07-53

mean 500mb flow for 7-10 days: hope for Run Reigate

Reigate weather for next week to 10 days is overall set to calm down somewhat and, for us in the south, be generally drier and warmer than average for the time of year, most of the time. Temperatures are unseasonably warm over the next few days with night times barely falling below teens and daytime reaching 21C.  This is due to the southerly winds bringing warm air from Spain.

2014-10-17_22-57-53

A slack static cold front divides the really warm air over the SE from the cooler air to the NW. This cold front will bring cloud and rain at times across the SE, especially to the south coast, as it drifts SE over the weekend.  Winds on the coast will also be more noticeable over the weekend with 20mph+ possible, but staying mild over the weekend. The temps are likely to slip very slightly as the weak cold front edges SE on Sunday bringing some rain through the SE and more wind to the south coast.

Unfortunately, there is a hiccup to this generally benign warm weather. A gradual rise in pressure is set to be sharply upset temporarily by the remains of Hurricane Gonzalo, now battering Bermuda as a Cat 3 storm and due to arrive UK early next week late Mon /Tues.

Gonzalo hiccup

Gonzalo hiccup

Gonzalo is modelled to arrive early/mid next week.  Forecasts suggest Gonzalo will merge with the persistent Atlantic low near iceland and ride the jetstream across the Atlantic arriving late Monday as a 980mb low (not especially low) , bringing gales initially to the west and NW coasts and then gales to through the North Sea later the same day.  Some heavy rain is likely but the SE and Reigate looks currently likely to miss the worst.

After its passage across the north of the UK, the centre of Gonzalo appears to move SE down into the North Sea and behind a potentially vigorous cold front usher in significantly cooler NW winds of some potency, albeit briefly.  These appear to peg down temps a while, especially on NE coasts. Thereafter, indications are for a gradual improvement in the south as high pressure builds over the continent, albeit with some fronts reaching across to the south at times before a HIGH pressure seems to be suggested for the last week in October.

2014-10-17_22-26-02

If this comes off a dry and settled spell can be expected for half term.  The location of the HIGH starts in the south where mild conditions can be expected but the anticyclone could slip north and topple east.  if this happens then temps will fall as a cool easterly flow are brought in from a cooler continent creating a more foggy autumnal feel.  The charts below show the possible scenario for the last week in October and very start of November with things cooling off.

So in summary the weather for half term is generally settled, warmer and drier than average for the time of year but with a significant hiccup as Gonzalo arrive early next week bringing a plunge of cool polar maritime air down across the UK and the north sea behind this sharp active system.  Thereafter, a gradual improvement to the last week of October when an anticyclone is set to build across the UK bringing autumnal foggy end to October as temperatures drop to November.  Note that extra-tropical storms upset models so keep an eye on any changes to this forecast.

forecasters: SAC and Chris M

 

 

 

Even in her hey-day Hurricane Bertha was not a powerful or well organised storm and she disappeared as a discrete tropical storm a few days ago. What is left crossing the Atlantic is a significant “blob” of heat and moisture that she dragged into the dog-days of the mid-latitudes.  Unfortunately for meteorologists the energy injected “intravenously” into the mid-latitudes upsets super-computer weather model forecasts. Models cannot handle the excitement!  The result is that various weather forecasts have struggled to agree and have been producing significantly differing outcomes as to the strength of Bertha and to when, where and IF she “makes landfall” in the UK.  Usually, the differences in model forecasts gradually reduce and forecasts increasingly agree, but in volatile atmospheric conditions it often goes down to the wire, like on this occasion!  This is why meteorologists have been unable to confidently pin down the exact track and strength and impact of Bertha on the UK.

Today there remains uncertainty, despite being only 48 hours out from her arrival.  The main cause of uncertainty is how she eventually interacts with an unseasonably strong and southerly jetstream.  Where a low pressure like Bertha arrives and moves under a jetstream makes a big difference to where she goes and whether she strengthens or weakens. The so-called “left-exit” region of a jet exerts most influence on deepening low pressures into significant storms.  Where the jet is slowing down or speeding up or curving can create extra lift, dragging air off the surface causing pressure to drop.

Here are three of the possible forecast outcomes from the GFS (including WRF/NMM which are similar), UKMET and ECMWF models. (Thanks to @BigJoeBastardi for the ECM model output from @WBAnalytics)

#1 Bertha could travel more or less down the eye through the English Channel from the SW.  This would take most of her highest winds and gales through France but would clip the south and SE of England with some heavy rain as the low crosses directly over this area.  The highest winds in these tight LOW pressure systems usually occur to the south of the LOW centre, associated with the warm and cold fronts.  The heaviest rainfall is modelled to fall to the north of the low associated with the occluded fronts and low pressure centre, hence the heavy rain clipping South and SE England. This outcome is currently favoured by the BBC and UKMET office models.

#2 Various other models, the GFS and WRF-NMM amongst them, favour a more northerly route and take the LOW from the SW approaches, through St George’s Channel, across Wales and into the heart of England before exiting into the North Sea.  Broadly speaking, this would be a worst-case scenario because the UK would take the brunt of both heaviest rain (to the north) and the highest winds (to the south).  Nevertheless, for @ridelondon and #Reigate and the SE this might be the preferred route because any fronts and poor weather would pass over our area relatively quickly on Sunday, the worst of it probably from around 9am through to 2pm.  It would also leave only trailing fronts depositing up to 10mm or so of rain across our region and some gusty conditions, wet for a while but nothing too drastic to speak of really.

#3 A third model, the ECMWF has, until recent runs been quite the outlier amongst all competing tracks, sending Bertha further south through France in earlier runs.  More recent ECM runs have played catch-up with GFS and now sends the LOW NE through the UK.  Significantly, ECM drops pressure to 987mb in the Irish Sea.

The outcome could, of course, be somewhere in between these two or something totally unexpected!  It is worth also pointing out that extra-tropical storms arriving in the UK are not uncommon and this one is likely to underwhelm in many places inland where gusts are unlikely to exceed 40mph and, in the SE maybe 30mph gusts will be the widespread maximum.  Coasts, hills and exposed areas are likely to see the worst of it with gusts up to 60mph or more.  Even here it will not be anything like as potent as our storms last winter where winds exceeded 90mph on occasions.  Nevertheless, with leaves on the trees there may be some blow-downs and loose branches and rain in some places might disrupt travel but it is doubtful that wide-spread chaos will ensue as compared with the morning after St Jude last October which was a lot more potent. See below.

 

The best advice is to watch weather warnings and updates carefully on Sunday for any changes.  RGSweather will be posting NOWCAST updates on twitter for Reigate and environs.  Here is the latest from NWS/NCEP showing storm force winds in the sea around the UK, note the unseasonably LOW central pressure on 985mb. In comparison, St Jude storm had a lowest overland central pressure of 976mb back in October 2013.

2014-08-08_19-19-29

Interestingly, the longer term weather impact of Bertha into next week is probably better modeled than her immediate track on Sunday.  She is forecast to move slowly up the North Sea and merge with and deepen her “parent” LOW to the N of Scotland.  This will introduce cooler unstable showery NW winds to the UK for the early part of next week. Showers and some more organised bands of rain are likely to be frequent visitors, especially to the NW and west coast.  It will also feel cooler and more breezy for the whole country.  So, put the balmy warm days of summer on hold next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/28707422

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/28707422

 http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/08/06/ex-bertha-more-likely-to-miss-uk/

Update: Fri pm

More model agreement now on a northerly track.  Potential for UK worst-case scenario. Wind and rain crossing the country.  Inland 30-40mph, coastal and hills poss 50-60mph.

2014-08-08_20-37-10

Haiyan officially deadliest storm in Philippines history with 5209 people killed.

Some 30 storms of varying intensity have formed in the Western Pacific region in 2013 and nearly 10 of these have crossed the Philippines or come near. People in the Philippines and this part of the Pacific are entirely used to tropical cyclones which is perhaps why so many so sadly did not heed warnings this time, choosing instead to sit it out in their homes. It is also dreadfully ironic that perhaps the welcome recent expansion of a more populous middle class in LIC’s such as the Philippines meant that people may possibly have felt safer in their new concrete homes than they may previously would have done in simpler shacks or self-built dwellings.  The storm surge would have meant they were trapped in a deadly and terrifying “washing machine” inside their own home rather than making the journey to shelters on higher ground given the warnings to evacuate low lying coastal districts. This, of course, is unsupported conjecture but was mentioned today by a previous resident of Tacloban interviewed on BBC Radio 4.

Haiyan was spotted before the 3 November when a cluster of intense thunderstorms began to rotate near the central Pacific Micronesia islands. At this point it became a Tropical depression, the weakest status for a cyclone. Rotation is the precursor for hurricane formation which is why hurricanes / typhoons never occur on the Equator due to the zero Coriolis (spinning effect) near the low latitudes.
During the next 3 days the storm traveled 2000 miles to the west, varying in intensity but staying below supertyphoon status. Nevertheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre based in Pearl Harbour was monitoring it and several storm chasers and camera crews chose to fly direct to the line of fire in Tacloban. 

So, the Philippines may have been unlucky this time because the Haiyan / Yolanda reached maximum intensity as a Cat 5 supertyphoon just before it made landfall and, due to the very warm sea surface temperatures to the east of the Philippines at the end of the summer, it did not weaken at all.
This led to the ferocious winds exceeding gusts of 200 mph and massive storm surge of some 6m that hit Tacloban and regions around there.

On the other hand, if Haiyan had been a terrorist attack: we knew his precise location, direction and potential threat several DAYS beforehand and we knew that Tacloban was staring down the barrel of this most unprecedented attack at least 48 hours before Haiyan unleashed with such ferocity.

With masses of technology already invested in weather prediction, the challenge for this century is to get appropriate, meaningful and timely warnings to people on the ground so they can react accordingly.  This will mean education and responsible leadership.

Tacloban and the Philippines more widely, is known to be exposed to the potential for typhoon damage, they experience storms frequently. Nevetherless, it is the lack of human planning and preparation that made her so vulnerable this time.

The picture below of the father carrying his child is so distressing that it should perhaps not be on this blog, but it might help us to understand the immeasurable impact this massive storm has had on real people.  Social media has made the world SO small now, allowing us to communicate with and get to know more about individuals who live across the planet than sometimes live across the street. It means that the people in these photos should, more than ever, be seen as our neighbours.

Here is an excellent explanation from the BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24905945

More on hurricane / typhoon formation here: this is old but a good outline of hurricane formation:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/12/typhoon-haiyan-survivors-scramble-to-escape-from-ravaged-tac?CMP=twt_fd

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303914304579193971305978200?mod=e2tw

12-11-2013 20-59-18

13-11-2013 17-01-47

Notes and links on RESPONSES and more long term impacts

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24927349

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24936249

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24936387

6 days later:

PH Govt now facing criticism as “despair and chaos” descend over Tacloban and effected areas.

Tonnes of aid remains undelivered due to Govt inefficiency? No large scale food distribution until now.

US Military / US Marine Corps arrive in force with aircraft carrier George Washington and other vessels with helicopters to rapidly deliver aid.  US have taken control. There is a dramatic change on the streets with dead being collected now, 6 Days later.

14-11-2013 07-39-09

donations

$5m Canada

$10m UK http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24906526

15-11-2013 06-58-54 15-11-2013 07-00-06

A superb article here : are events like Haiyan just “acts of God” or partly “acts of Man”? http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/14/typhoon-haiyan-philippines-disasters-act-of-god

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/TC-2013-000139-PHL_snapshot_131115.pdf

16-11-2013 10-24-05Fear of disease: mass vaccination program of 33000 children started in Tacloban amongst fears of cholera epidemic threat in devastated city.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25102286

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25092026

Psychological damage http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25047459

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25051606

Good summary on management of aftermath and aid and reconstruction: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24927349 http://ph.news.yahoo.com/philippines-typhoon-survivors-determined-hope-064404511.html

storm surge science http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/02/storm-surge-science-the-funneling-effect-in-typhoon-haiyan-and-tacloban-video/

ONGOING UPDATES ADDED TO THIS PAGE: THIS IS NOW THE MOST INTENSE TYPHOON TO MAKE LANDFALL IN HISTORY WITH 230MPH GUSTS MADE LANDFALL ON THE PHILIPPINES COAST FRIDAY 7 OCTOBER 2013… THINK OF PEOPLE THERE AND HOPE THEY ARE MAKING THEMSELVES SAFE.

STORM STATS TO DATE…(10/11/2013) President declares “state of national calamity”

Latest 15/11/2013 PH Gvt website and BBC  5000 dead; 3853 injured; 921,000 displaced; 243,000 homes destroyed

At least 2 million families (11.8 million people) in 51 cities; 1444 evacuation centres. Estimated $4billion damages to PH

http://www.humanityroad.org/situation-report

LATEST FROM BBC NEWS

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24878801

This page has essentially become a chronological scrap-blog of emerging information from the pre-storm warnings to the immediate post-disaster phase. Scroll down for maps, sat pics, videos and photos and links as they were forthcoming during the storm.  Live information from web sources including twitter and facebook direct from chase teams and embedded weather journalists as well as local Philippino sources traversed by the eye wall are included. This video was shot for CNN by storm chaser James Reynolds @typhoonfury who went to Tacloban knowing the eye wall would cross directly over.

This is an historic tropical cyclone: a truly huge storm and the strongest in recorded history with devastating impacts emerging from the areas hit by the hurricane eye, such as Tacloban City, Leyte and S Samar.  (Typhoon Tip was the previous record breaking strongest storm). Several extreme storm chasers and journalists embedded themselves into the path of the EYE WALL including James Reynolds @typhoonfury and Jim Edds @ExtremeStorms bringing up-close and personal stories of the true horrifying nature of the storm and the terrible aftermath now unfolding.

(LIVE now a recording offline COVERAGE OF LANDFALL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrEVLCbAfys&app=desktop)

LIVE BBC COVERAGE http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCiYEBAooZo

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/08/typhoon-haiyan-batters-philippines

https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone

A major super typhoon with winds gusting more than 200mph has emerged out of the NW Pacific and is on track to cross the Philippines at the end of this week. With 175 mph sustained maximum winds this is the most powerful storm this year and, were it an Atlantic Hurricane, it would be about the most powerful on record. Although it will weaken slightly when it crosses land, it is still an exceptionally dangerous storm and a great threat because the Philippines is a densely populated country and, while the capital Manila will not receive a direct hit, some 10 million people in Luzon are in the area predicted for Haiyan to make first landfall.  The storm is then predicted to track rapidly across to Vietnam where it will arrive on Sunday, possibly still as a strong typhoon.

Update: poss most powerful landfall typhoon ever: off the NOAA Dvorak instensity scale http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

It was a FAST moving storm and the eye passed over Guiuan district and Tacloban City in just a few hours but the impact was immense.

“The typhoon moved fast and didn’t last long– only a few hours– but it struck the city with absolutely terrifying ferocity.”

The last tweet from storm journalist Jim Edds in Tacloban was sent just before the eye wall hit and then..nothing. He and other extreme film makers were reported safe and evacuated later

http://stormvisuals.com/florida-weather/2013/11/7/video-storm-photographer-awaits-super-typhoon-haiyan-in-the.html

http://stormvisuals.com/florida-weather/2013/11/10/video-storm-photographer-shares-experience-with-deadly-typho.html

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/super-typhoon-haiyan-a-serious/19561621


http://www.news.com.au/world/super-typhoon-haiyan-gaining-strength-set-to-hit-philippines/story-fndir2ev-1226755411772

http://news.sky.com/story/1165530/super-typhoon-haiyan-hits-the-philippines

IF the typhoon had passed over Europe… how big would it be?

09-11-2013 10-52-55

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/typhoon-haiyan-most-powerful-storm-to-ever-hit-land-batters-philippines-with-235mph-winds-8926719.html

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Instagram videos of destruction in Tacloban http://instagram.com/macmaloon



http://www.rappler.com/nation/43285-initial-reports-damage-tacloban-city
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/super-typhoon-haiyan-latest-news-20131108?hootPostID=de00db08af5507b1944839bc6c86d92a
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2013/11/08/typhoon-haiyan-photo-and-video-gallery/

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/11/thousands-feared-killed-philippine-typhoon-2013119131138727893.html

09-11-2013 11-57-16


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2494635/Philippines-super-typhoon-Haiyan-powerful-storm-history.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Morgerman posted this harrowing report on Facebook:

First off, Tacloban City is devastated. The city is a horrid landscape of smashed buildings and completely defoliated trees, with widespread looting and unclaimed bodies decaying in the open air. The typhoon moved fast and didn’t last long– only a few hours– but it struck the city with absolutely terrifying ferocity. At the height of the storm, as the wind rose to a scream, as windows exploded and as our solid-concrete downtown hotel trembled from the impact of flying debris, as pictures blew off the walls and as children became hysterical, a tremendous storm surge swept the entire downtown. Waterfront blocks were reduced to heaps of rubble. In our hotel, trapped first-floor guests smashed the windows of their rooms to keep from drowning and screamed for help, and we had to drop our cameras and pull them out on mattresses and physically carry the elderly and disabled to the second floor. Mark’s leg was ripped open by a piece of debris and he’ll require surgery. The city has no communication with the outside world. The hospitals are overflowing with the critically injured. The surrounding communities are mowed down. After a bleak night in a hot, pitch-black, trashed hotel, James, Mark, and I managed to get out of the city on a military chopper and get to Cebu via a C-130– sitting next to corpses in body bags. Meteorologically, Super Typhoon HAIYAN was fascinating; from a human-interest standpoint, it was utterly ghastly. It’s been difficult to process.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/09/disaster-in-tacloban-philippines-chasers-document-ghastly-scene-from-typhoon/
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/16aq0AH-OnEE_bM53iL5qInqHPZ28lntEXPs-rS01a88/viewform

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/11/09/13/massive-destruction-tacloban-city
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-11-07/super-typhoon-haiyan-philippines/
http://www.rappler.com/nation/43311-diary-tacloban-death-anarchy
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57611622/typhoon-haiyans-death-toll-rises-in-philippines/

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/524159/1200-believed-dead-in-philippine-typhoon-red-cross

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/one-of-worlds-strongest-storms-lashes-philippines-but-nation-appears-to-avoid-major-disaster/2013/11/08/2d7c164e-48d8-11e3-95a9-3f15b5618ba8_story_1.html
09-11-2013 19-16-12

09-11-2013 16-19-09

Damage far worse than people thought: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/recent-tropical-cyclones-killed-over-one-thousand-20131109?hootPostID=774277f3e615bfd5c5f0a71157fbfab7
http://earthsky.org/earth/incredible-images-and-video-of-super-typhoon-haiyan

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/super-typhoon-haiyan-hits-philippines-230815112.html


Massive online efforts from PH govt to help aid and search and rescue efforts: http://www.gov.ph/crisis-response/updates-typhoon-yolanda/
http://www.gov.ph/crisis-response/updates-typhoon-yolanda/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24887337
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-11-07/super-typhoon-haiyan-philippines/
http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2013/11/10/natpkg-philippines-typhoon-storm-chaser.james-reynolds-uncut-productions.html
http://www.gov.ph/2013/11/10/ndrrmc-data-report-per-province-november-10-2013/
http://anc.yahoo.com/video/pnp-explains-why-looting-never-015407805.html
600,000 people evacuated from Vietnam and Hainan as Yolanda Haiyan arppaches Sunday 10/11/2013
2 months to fully restore power as 90% poles lost in storm surge https://donate.oxfam.org.uk/emergency?pscid=ps_ggl_Emergencies_Philippines_GDN

http://anc.yahoo.com/video/first-aid-tips-during-supertyphoon-083020305.html

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/OCHAPhilippinesTyphoonHaiyanSitrepNo.4.10November2013.pdf

doc02382320131110212404

11/11/2013 Tacloban now officially placed under a state of emergency

Red Cross report “absolute bedlam”

11-11-2013 19-16-15UK Govt promises £10 million

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/typhoon-haiyan-every-single-building-every-single-house-destroyed–governments-pledge-millions-but-tacloban-is-still-waiting-8933515.html

 

Hurricane Humberto: a hurricane which left Cape Verde on 8 Sept and has been hovering in the Tropics ever since. Early models suggested a direct hit with the UK sometime next weekend which would have been wet and breezy. Latest charts show HUmberto gliding safely north of the UK. The GOOD thing about this is that Humberto will bring a great deal of Tropical warmth with him, especially on the south side. The heat embedded within the Humberto circulation will push warm upper winds from the Azores area north and build an upper ridge and surface HIGH pressure over the UK from the end of the week and hopefully over the weekend.  Warm air moving north aloft lifts air pressure through the whole warming column of the atmosphere and the result is increased surface pressure: an anticyclone (opposite of this weekend!).

Humberto is currently just a tropical depression having lost energy over a cooler part of the mid-Atlantic.  However, he is due to intensify when he meets the mid-latitude westerly circulation around the end of the week and entering the jetstream will deepen circulation further creating an extra-tropical mid latitude depression.  Charts say this will pass between the UK and Iceland… check back for updates.

humberto track into jet


So, it’s a way off to be sure, but the latest models seem to be pointing towards a nice weekend courtesy of Tropical Cyclone Humberto. Interestingly, Humberto left West Africa on 8 Sept and the first significant landfall he will make might well be Iceland next weekend!

GALE WARNING: Reigate could see 40mph gusts in exposed places building through Sunday peaking in the afternoon and early evening.

Sunday will see the first Autumnal storm bringing rain and strong winds and a cool plunge of air from the Poles through Sunday and influencing our weather for much of next week.

Rain is due to arrive Sunday pm, and winds will build through the day to reach peak gusts possibly close to moderate gale force in exposed places 40mph into Sunday evening. Rainfall totals overnight into Monday could amount to 6-10mm, less than the rain yesterday and overnight, but heavy at times.
The cool air will be a feature as it follows the cold front with a Polar airmass fresh from Iceland. Expect temps to struggle into low double figures and feel especially cool in the breeze.
A gradual recovery through the week but the LOW will never be far away, lingering in the North Sea / Atlantic between Scotland and Norway: bringing northerly winds much of the week.
The end of the week might see ex-hurricane Humberto knock on the door. At least he will bring tropical air instead of Polar! Autumn is winding up!

Formation of our first Autumnal storm… 14 Sept

surface low formationThe chart above shows an unusually fast 200mph jetstream at 30,000 feet blasting across the North Atlantic from S Greenland to to S Iceland.  This jetstream then loops south and changes speed.  Any alterations in the speed and direction of an active jetstream are potential development areas for mid-latitude depressions.  The one South of Iceland, developing as we speak, is being created by the sudden decelaration of the polar jetstream and a steep temperature gradient between each side: warm to the south, cold to the north of the jet.  This steep temperature and pressure gradient across the jetstream axis encourages rising air (drags it off the ground), a fall in air surface pressure and convergence of airmasses at the surface: a cyclone.


Chart on left shows rain forecast for tonight (Fri-Sat).  Chart on right shows some interesting synoptic situation in Atlantic early next week.

Reigate and SE could see some heavy and even torrential rain from late afternoon / evening today and overnight clearing Saturday am. Totals could exceed 30mm in places, but more widely totals between 10-20mm. This LOW is moving from SW in the Channel and proceeding overhead across the SE with a complex of associated fronts. This system heralds the mother of all LOWS which is moving in on Sunday… sweeping an unusually cold Arctic blast across the whole country by early next week. Autumn is here and the Atlantic shows signs of greater activity with a more active jetstream and the appearance of the first ex-hurricane / extra-tropical storm Humberto on the Atlantic Charts next week too.  Humberto is delivering Tropical air to the Pole, while our cold Arctic blast does the opposite.

The big news this weekend is the start of the temperature drop-off which looks to last most of next week.  Saturday will start this process off as cooler air is set to sweep down across the country, mainly from Sunday onwards.  Tmax might reach 12c but in the wind it’ll feel 10c or so and with rain as well it’ll all look thoroughly Autumnal!  Later next week there are signs of high pressure building back in with better weather and a recovery of temps, but let’s wait and see on that one!

850hPa drop this weekend