Archives For autumn

2015-11-21_14-40-20

Quick October weather summary for Reigate 2015.

Summary stats for October in Reigate, Surrey, England

  • T average 11.6C
  • Tmax 19.33 C
  • Tmin 3.2C
  • Rainfall total 61mm (CoCoRaHs)
  • Sunshine 95.3 hours
  • Max gust 24mph (24 Oct)

October CET temperature came out just above average at +0.4C. Significantly, globally, October 2015 was the warmest October ever on record for this month by a significant margin, probably due in part to a strong El Nino.  In fact every month of 2015 so far has been record-breakingly warm and each month has been the warmest recorded anomaly… since 1880.

2015-11-21_14-55-43

October global temperature anomaly 2015

Due to anomalously high pressure for much of the month, South East England rainfall was lower than average at some 76% of the long term average.  In Reigate this amounted to 61mm of rain.

Despite the high pressure sunshine amounts were average or slightly below in the south east with Reigate totting up 95.3 hours of sunshine in the month.

October is sometimes correlated with winter outcomes. Anomalously high pressure in October has sometimes been correlated with cold winter patterns, though this is highly experimental.  In addition, October Siberian snow cover expanded rapidly and beyond the 2014 cover for the same period.  This got winter forecasters further interested in the possibility of high pressure, northern blocking and the increased potential for a cold late winter in the UK.  However, seasonal forecasts have a habit of going awry, as was illustrated by the ill-fated “October Pattern Index” much heralded in the run-up to winter 2014 when it predicted a cold one. The OPI, as far as I can tell, has now disappeared off the seasonal forecasting scene completely.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/october

2015-09-18_19-00-43

run reigate weekend wins out for a great day

The second annual Run Reigate half marathon and 10km race on Sunday is a major event for the town.  Happily the weather looks PERFECT for both runners and spectators!

A ridge of HIGH pressure is building in as the trough which brought a few sharp showers this afternoon moves off NE. So we expect no rain at all this weekend.

A beautifully settled early autumn weekend is expected.  Cool nights at Tmin 10C with some autumnal mist early morning are likely.  Days will brighten up in sunshine to reach possibly Tmax 20C in the afternoon.

Light winds and little cloud will be appreciated by runners and spectators. The outlook is for unsettled cooler than average conditions to gradually return on Monday and into next week with rain at times as Atlantic fronts progress across the country with low pressure. Further ahead there is a chance of a warmer and drier end to September as a Scandinavian high builds to the east.

2015-09-18_18-50-09

outlook shows a fortunately settled weekend for Run Reigate