June has been a cool month so far and is on target to be the coolest June since 1991, or certainly close. It has also been dry with just 28% of monthly rain so far for SE England.
In contrast to the June trend, mostly due to the Azores HIGH lodged firmly to the SW and dragging in a cool dry NW flow (bit unusual for a summer regime), today a humid moist warm sector crosses Reigate and this will bring a minor hiccup to the dry weather of the last week when there has been no rain at all in Reigate. Humid air is due to arrive in the warm sector and this is indicated by modestly raised dew points (high teens) and PWAT (precipitable water) exceeding 30mm, showing potential for some heavy rain around but this is hit n miss. (update: metoffice weather warning issued in morning for heavy thundery rain)
Of interest are surface winds which appear to converge in a zone, associated with a cold front, across the south later today (spot the twisty wind barbs below): convergence is where winds arrive quicker than they leave a region and, as winds “pile up”, this often promotes LIFT (upward air motion) that encourages convection and storms. But it’s a slack scene and by no means a classic stormy picture. Scattered slight risk of heavy showers is likely to be about it.
Skew-t charts (cross-sections through the atmosphere showing temperature, wind speed, direction and humidity etc) also show reasonably high CAPE >600j/kg (convective available potential energy) and some negative lifted index in central southern England. These values are indicators of instability: which means air is free to rise to a great height, condense into tall clouds possibly forming cumulonimbus. Note the change of wind speed with height, such wind shear also acts to duct air from the surface. Well, the ingredients are there for heavy showers later today but they were also present in the much heralded plume last week and that came to nothing, catching out professional forecasts as well as amateur enthusiasts. There were a few notable heavy thundery outbreaks last week but many convective forecasters and storm enthusiasts were stung by the lack of activity and model predictions appeared to founder. The scenario today is decidedly less “stormy” so storm fans should not get excited either!
Of note is a dry slot at 700hPa mid levels (shown well on the chart below) that can induce evaporative cooling. Evaporative cooling is caused when moisture evaporates and reduces temperature. This reduced temperature at mid levels of the atmosphere can create higher CAPE as warm parcels excitedly find themselves rising through ever cooler environmental air. If sunshine heats the surface this can promote heavy showers and possible thunderstorms, albeit scattered and only a slight risk today. In addition a weak jetstream moves to a position later pm where any showers will find themselves on the left-exit region of the jetstream.. this is area known to further lift air from the surface, like a hoover dragging air upwards into divergent air aloft.
The forecast is for scattered showers, some thundery later. So, as usual, some places could miss them though it’s a moist air flow so some rain is likely most places. Rainfall totals will vary between almost nothing to possible >10mm.
Sunday looks cloudy but mostly dry as showers clear off tonight. Next week and towards the end of June there is a threat of more rain, possibly pretty heavy on Monday as Atlantic LOWS nibble away at the Azores high that has dominated our weather recently. Monday sees a frontal wave low sticking wet conditions across the south which could yield high rain totals. Thereafter, mid week sees the Azores HIGH ridging back in with pleasant warm and dry conditions but this looks temporary as Atlantic LOWS nibble away with wetter westerlies always trying to edge back in.
The outlook is therefore occasionally unsettled, especially in the north further from any ridges, though with the risk of heavy showers at times in the south. Gradual warming trend into July with possibility of a brief warm or hot SE flow to start the month, as shown below on the 850hPa temperature GEFS chart: note the “plume” (oh no) with regressed Azores HIGH and thermal heat LOW over Spain. Way off, but worth watching 🙂