After a cool unsettled end to May with a strong zonal jetstream, early June weather prospects are getting interesting for Reigate as models build a tantalizing “heat wave” with potential for warm plumes and thunderstorms, quite a contrast to the start of the week! The warming is just beginning to cook up on the mean temperature anomaly chart and recent GFS model runs shown below with Tmax temperatures in the high 20’s and some approaching 30C by next weekend/ Saturday especially. Here’s a review, rather than a forecast, of some of the synoptic features unfolding early June weather. The scenario can change a lot by next weekend of course, so stay tuned, especially to twitter and the fantastic UK weather community (both amateur and professional) for updates.
In the short term, the end of May and start of June will continue to be dominated by LOW pressure to the north sweeping active fronts across the UK with attendant rain and wind, especially Sunday and more on Tuesday, though as usual Reigate and SE will be sheltered from the worst of this which will impact the NW mainly. Tuesday’s Atlantic depression has an unseasonably low forecast central pressure of 972mb (UKMET) and 968mb (GFS) due to a strong jetstream across Scotland of 160mph. Expect windy, gales in west and coasts, showery and unseasonably cool weather everywhere but especially in the NW during these episodes. Reigate on Tuesday could have gusts exceeding 40mph. Update Sunday: MetOffice have issued a weather warning for gales countrywide for this event.
— Met Office (@metoffice) May 31, 2015
968mb would be close to the lowest June central pressure to impact the UK since 2000**, though the MetOffice chart below showing 972mb is probably nearer what will happen in reality. Highest winds (40mph inland, 50mph coastal) in Reigate and SE are expected Tuesday am as a daughter frontal wave-low whizzes across the Midlands trailing her bigger parent.
— RGS Weather (@RGSweather) June 1, 2015
By the end of this week models build a meridional (wiggly) flow in the jetstream as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) turns negative which means pressure over Iceland rises relative to that over the Azores which falls below average. This weakens the pressure gradient and reduces jetstream strength. The NAO is not a driver of weather but is an indicator of Atlantic patterns that controls incoming weather for the UK and Europe. A negative NAO often means fewer Atlantic based LOWS with a less aggressive and frequently more meandering polar front jetstream, with more chance of continental weather impacting the UK as pressure builds to the north (in winter this can bring cold weather from the continent).
A negative North Atlantic Oscillation usually indicates a weaker jetstream and one that meanders with high amplitude waves across latitudes, a so called meridional pattern (rather than zonal which blows purposefully west to east across Atlantic along strong pressure gradient between Azores and Iceland: dragging in frequent LOWS). A meridional jetstream can slow-down and fix weather patterns into place, especially if a HIGH builds to the north as a so called blocking pattern. Such a pattern looks possible with current model runs, though with steep temperature gradients building over a heating up USA/Canada, a return to an active unsettled Atlantic pattern seems possible later into June which could breakdown any blocking pattern and finish off our balmy continental flow, but that is way off so remains to be seen!
The meandering jet developing from mid week will encourage a warm / hot continental easterly / SE flow for the UK as pressure builds initially to the north east and pressure lowers to the south from Wednesday. A cut-off LOW to the west of Iberia sandwiched between the Azores HIGH and the HIGH further NE is also a prime ingredient to waft warm unstable Spanish plumes our way as the HIGH pressure drifts east over Scandinavia (see above charts).
The threat of heat and thunderstorms peaks next weekend, notably on Saturday, with temperatures peaking as high as 30C. The 850hPa chart above shows the warm plume arriving from Spain. Upper air temperatures exceeding 15C would yield hot daytime temperatures approaching 30C in sunny conditions. Such warm plumes of continental air, meeting Atlantic air injected from the cool HIGH offshore, could lead to unstable thundery episodes (more on Spanish Plumes here) On the other hand the pressure is quite high in the East so this could suppress convective action here, the detail will be critical. On the skew-t chart below spot the steep lapse rates, negative lifted index and high CAPE, high dew points (moist air) and precipitable water content below, all lively indicators of an unstable atmosphere. It’s a long way off though so things can change a lot and frequently do!
This set-up is the source of excitement over “heat” by the end of next week: a warm continental plume. Pressure in this scenario would be highest in the north of the UK so the SE could see more unsettled conditions. Interestingly, the current Madden-Julian Oscillation Phase 1 and 2 (a tropical disturbance pattern used to forecast patterns in medium range) correlates with this emerging pattern, with P1 and P2 often linked to HIGH pressure to north, LOW over Europe and an unsettled S/SE UK.
Despite this, a prolonged heat wave does not seem to be a strong possibility. Technically a UK “heat wave” is when daily maximum temperatures for more than five consecutive days exceed the average maximum temperature by 5 °C. For the SE this usually means exceeding 30C daytime Tmax and 16C night time Tmin, whilst forecasts for the end of next week are warm, sustained heat of this nature does not seem likely. Pressure and 850hPa temperatures rise this week with some models in the high 20’sC Tmax. Both medium and longer range models suggest either a flat-line or fall in both as June progresses.
Models also suggest a weakening of pressure and some play with a thundery breakdown bringing in wildly high CAPE values (convective potential) into June. This suggests a breakdown as pressure falls. Some CAPE values forecast are extreme for the UK and would not be out of place in a Mid-West tornadic supercell! However, often these scenarios fail to materialise as forecast and often the instability and thunderstorms simply brush past the SW of the UK or stay in France, perhaps clipping Kent alone.
Models in the second week of June seem to suggest the HIGH builds out to the NW, regressing from the location over Scandinavia. This would put the UK on the cooler side of the HIGH with a northerly flow, thus ending any heat spike. This is just one GFS run and at the unreliable end of the model but a possible solution.
Finally, over the long term average June is rarely “hot” for a prolonged period and this brief hot spell declining into “warm” would seem to match the emerging pattern. On average, the hottest day of the year falls in June only 25% of the time and June has shown climate trends of becoming rather duller and wetter bucking the trend of overall warming for other months due to climate change. The frequency of Atlantic westerlies, on average, also picks up in June making sustained “heat” a rarity. Nevertheless, a brief warm spell is likely as shown by the end of this week as shown by increasingly convincing model trends. Thereafter, the location of the HIGH and jetstream activity will probably control unfolding June weather events.
Update from @wansteadweather supports idea that June may not live up to any hot start, HIGH dominates but the position may feed average to cool flow from N. Will be interesting to see how this pans out!
@RGSweather just had a quick estimate for June – not looking good for overall warmth… Av to cold: 71% chance, rain av to dry: 71%, sun: av
— Wanstead weather (@wanstead_meteo) May 30, 2015