How high can we expect temperatures to go and how Spring-like is this weekend set to be in Reigate? Find out below!
This weekend and possibly for much of March, the weather is set to be dominated by HIGH pressure nearby to the south and low pressure to the NW which will bring in mild southerly or SW winds for Reigate. Cooler and cloudy easterly wind directions are also possible later next week if the high pressure slips NE to Scandinavia which models are suggesting. Whilst this weekend is expected to be pleasantly mild and spring-like and initially sunny on Saturday, temperatures are not going to break any Spring records because cloud cover is gradually going to spill from the north on a weakening cold front.
The synoptic chart above shows the HIGH over the continent to the south of the UK and a deep low to the NW between Iceland and Greenland. This is dragging in, with the help of a lively SW jetstream, a SW moist airflow over Scotland. In fact NW Scotland has an amber warning for huge rainfall totals above 140mm over the next few days assoicated with the stalled cold front that will sit near or over Scotland for much of the time. Warm air flow ahead of this cold front is advecting large amounts of moisture in a plume over the mountains which is causing the high totals over the NW. The charts below show the unsettled NW compared to the calm, mild and dry SE of the UK under the influence of the HIGH pressure.
The charts below show the story for this weekend. Initially a dry airmass sits over the SE on Saturday morning but this is gradually replaced as cloudy conditions slip SE. Temperatures through the weekend are looking mild, with Tmax 15C possible on Saturday, but anything higher is less likely on Sunday as cloud further thickens with the arrival of a weak cold front. Saturday is probably the most pleasant day with brighter sunnier conditions especially in the morning. The cold front in Scotland slowly migrates SE during the weekend but weakens as it does so. By the time it reaches the SE on Sunday evening it is probably only going to bring low cloud and some drizzle. Throughout the weekend wind in the SE is set to be light, especially on Sunday. Misty conditions might occur overnight into Sunday and later Sunday evening in light winds.
Next week is looking generally mild and with HIGH pressure not far away to the south mostly dry. A couple of LOW pressure systems are forecast to pass across the NW of the country and their trailing fronts will be weak in the SE but could bring cloud and some light rain.
Overall the high pressure looks set to dominate Europe during next week bringing dry and warmer than normal conditions.
The GFS and ECM both suggest that the HIGH could slip over Scandinavia by the end of the week, as the chart below suggests. This would introduce cooler easterly winds to the UK but nothing too icy at this time of year, it would also remain mostly dry. Unfortunately, easterly winds are often cloudy as they pick up moisture from the North Sea that creates days of anticyclonic gloom under an inversion.
The charts below summarise the weather outlook: high pressure domintating bringing mostly dry and mild conditions. Nights next week could turn colder with possible frost returning. The longer range models suggest March could turn out to be a very dry month especially in the south.