Mary arrives today over SE England. She is the first of our three “storms” with Mungo and Midge following hard on her high heels this weekend, although the lack of wind over the SE inland hardly makes her worthy of such a title, she could bring gales to the Channel though. Anyhow, for Reigate and SE today she will be damp, cloudy and dreary and largely windless today as the LOW passes directly over the SE tonight. Her main threat is rain, and whilst some models still don’t make anything of this, the UKMET certainly does, with 20-30mm falling quite widely across a narrow corner of the SE as mass uplift of air takes place within the core low central pressure. However, she is not a deep low and winds will be remarkably light inland. Any heavy rain will fall this evening and overnight on wet ground and this could cause local flooding. There is also a tiny risk of a thunderstorm overnight for Reigate embedded in the heaviest rain rolling up from the south.
Reigate can expect a dreary and damp day all day with poss heavy rain overnight causing potentially localised flooding by Saturday morning.
Winds get up markedly tomorrow Saturday as Mungo arrives. He, along with Midge overnight Sunday into Monday, will be more lively and ultimately drag in cooler air with Tmax temps by Monday not even reaching 9c for much of the country.
This is a temporary cool-off as warmer air arrives from the SW during next week. Remaining unsettled.