Three storms in three days (*though Midge arrives late Sunday/early Monday am to Reigate), let’s call them Mary, Mungo and Midge… three storms with different characteristics. The situation is so fast moving that computer models differ quite markedly over what’s going on, their track and how much rain these will bring and where any gales will blow. So keep watching forecasts and check our twitter feed for local “Nowcasting” updates. It will be down to the wire for how much rain we get. Nevertheless, expect an inclement three days with gales near coasts at times almost anywhere and up mountains in NW. Reigate and SE will by no means have a continuous wash-out and we will have good periods of dry, bright and breezy weather at times, particularly Sunday looks like this at the moment. Ridges between LOWS will bring quieter periods, so it depends when these pass over your region. So do check detailed forecasts as they come in. It’s also worth noting that these storms are not as powerful as StJude last week but, nevertheless, if you are planning recreational ascents of mountains in N England / Scotland or perhaps learning to sail off the SW coast you may wish to alter your plans 🙂
Here are some characteristics of each storm and what we can expect, especially focussed on SE and Reigate…
Mary: Friday: a relatively warm storm sweeps up from the SW with lots of rain attached. While the UKMO brings heavy rain across SE several other models move rain across the Channel and gales into N France. It could be a near-miss with this one.
- Passes across S England Fri – fri night from SW
- Heavy rain, gales over N France, but could reach UK south and Channel
- relatively warmer air in UK South and SE; 13-14c max for Reigate
- lower winds inland as centre of LOW overhead SE
- lowest pressure 998mb but deepening as she goes east; getting windy much later Friday night and into Saturday for SE
Mungo: a beefier storm altogether…crosses UK West-East further north on Saturday bringing gales and rain to Northern England while the Scottish Highlands get significant snow and cold wind chill temps down to -12c on summits.
- Passes S Scotland N England Sat pm deepening as it goes
- lowest pressure 978mb and gales over N England
- COLDER air, snow over Highlands
- 12-13c max for Reigate, falling away to 8c in evening, feeling cooler in wind.
- sweeps gales over Ireland, NW west coast UK and mountains; Reigate stays altogether more sheltered and could be an OK day Saturday, with showers later pm.
- could sweep lots of rain over SE
- 8-10c for Reigate
- gales in Channel
Total rainfall varies but the SE could see 30-40mm fall over the next three days, most falling with Midge who crosses SE Sun night into Monday early am. Blustery conditions and cooler temperatures can be expected, especially Saturday evening and windy into Sunday but that should stay mostly dry at least. Typically autumnal but the quick succession of storms is notable, especially as so many people will be out and about this weekend at bonfire parties.
SW and NW coastal areas areas will see high seas and big waves this weekend pounding the west coast, 3-5m waves in the Channel are possible for example.
Mountain areas in the NW will also experience some wild conditions, with Cairngorms seeing windchill fall to less than -10c and heavy snow.
Reigate is as usual nice and sheltered from the worst but could see heavy rain and winds of 30mph on occasions. Expect some very autumnal temps and a cool weekend, with possibly very heavy rain Sunday night into Monday.
p.s. Mary, Mungo and Midge was a children’s programme from 1960’s.