Forecast models are building a significant autumnal stormy picture across the UK next week. Depressions sweeping in from the west on a lively jetstream are looking likely to swing south and bring high winds, cooler temperatures and plenty of rain, especially to the west, but significantly also to the south. Gale force winds will be significant in coastal and mountain areas if these models come right. It’s early days but more model agreement means more confidence is building in this scenario with only the ECMWF finding potential calmer conditions with high pressure. Watch the temps fall away from recent mild conditions as these LOWS also drag in cooler NW winds… more normal for the time of year. Tmax 9 or 10c compared with current 17c. Tmin 5 or 6c compared with low teens now. In the wind it’ll feel much cooler than the balmy conditions we have got right now.
This situation is extremely mobile and one to watch carefully, but increasing agreement between models (GEM, GFS, UKMO) shows increasing confidence in something wicked this way coming! The situation brews over the weekend and unleashes early in the week with another storm later. Check back for details as they emerge.