“Normal” jet set to fling humid SW flow from warmer-than-usual Atlantic

October 13, 2013 — Leave a comment

Our miserable cut-off cool pool LOW pressure which has caused a wet and windy weekend for the SE (Reigate: 29mph gusts and 33mm:13th wettest place in the UK!) is set to be booted east by mid-week as a zonal west-east jetstream makes a return.  Watch the animation below and see how the SW flow makes temperatures warm up over the UK as air is dragged up from the SW by a strong Atlantic LOW pressure sitting off the west of Ireland. The Atlantic is up to 4c warmer than usual (check yellow and orange colours on the SST anomaly map) and the air we will get this week will be almost exclusively from that direction. The recent Arctic blast will be a distant memory and Tmax temps could exceed 17c by Thursday! The down side is that a humid SW flow will bring attendant windy conditions and frontal rainfall to much of the country, but least to the SE. The early part of the week looks showery with Wednesday being the wettest and Thursday the warmest. 

Meanwhile, consider Cyclone Phailin which made landfall on the east coast of India today: it delivered 250mm of rain to some parts and 160mph winds.  The evacuation of nearly one million people seems to have been successful in mitigating hazard impacts and reducing loss of life from this powerful Level 6 cyclone, the strongest in that region for 10 years.  A triumph of hazard mitigation: the West and US could learn a lot from this example of hazard management.

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