Atlantic dishwasher abandoned by jet edges warm rinse cycle closer to UK this weekend

September 24, 2013 — Leave a comment

A stubbornly slow moving “dishwasher” LOW spinning up west of Spain and just NE of the Azores has been abandoned by the jetstream. This LOW has sat there all week in a cool pool near the Azores. The tropical Azores have seen Tmax temps only a tad higher than Reigate this week as a cool polar pool gradually fills in that region. It is the position of the Atlantic dishwasher that controls our weekend weather.
Most models agree it will edge closer but this is a slow stuttering move without purpose or direction. Infact, it’s likely that this LOW will never move across the UK because of the stubborn ridge of HIGH pressure to the NE, causing the LOW to remain stuck out west sending occasional fronts and heavy showers our way as the pressure falls. The UK will remain in a relatively warm upper southerly flow with Tmax staying into the 20s through the weekend and possibly into next week, though things are uncertain at that range at the moment.
Expect windier conditions through the weekend, especially to the south coast.
Weekend weather could possibly see thundery showers edging over Reigate sometime Saturday through to Sunday but this is dependent on the location of the LOW. Current model runs suggest the heaviest rain will stay south in the Channel but check back as updates occur.
Between now and then… sluggish, overcast high pressure days with anticyclonic gloom for much of the week until the wind picks up.
Reigate was, again, the warmest place in the UK today… at 23.7C matching a rounded up figure for Charlwood, Gatwick at 24c.

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