Reigate: it never rains but it pause…

June 21, 2013 — Leave a comment

Reigate weekend weather will be windy and wet first thing Saturday with showers and bright intervals following after a well defined front moves away early. Typically, no deluge is forecast for Reigate and the East but early rain on Saturday could be heavy for a time around breakfast. Most rain will fall further west. The most significant feature of weekend weather for Reigate will be wind: gusting from the west over 35mph at times on exposed hills on Saturday, less on Sunday.  

A summer depression with a LOW central pressure for the summer (994mb) is passing straight across Scotland over the weekend. This has winds spiralling anti-clockwise around the centre of the LOW, for Reigate this means gusts over 30mph on the hills and generally widespread 20mph winds. Quite a breezy day for mid-summer. As the cloud breaks in the afternoon it will be good kite flying weather. More rain and cloud could be widespread on Sunday, some of it heavy and showery in the afternoon.
For next week things look much better as a large HIGH pressure builds across the entire Atlantic and pushes any more depressions well to the North over Iceland. This HIGH will settle over the west of the UK and build across the East as the weekend LOW moves out into the North Sea. We can look forward to some pleasant dry summer weather well into next week, reaching over 20C. But always with the threat of a shower in the east where winds will be from the NW or west.
So…total rainfall for the next week in Reigate is forecast to be a mere 10mm or so, hardly very much. At least 8mm of this is forecast to fall this weekend, making next week very dry indeed!

During the recent last spell of warm humid sticky weather with the warm southerly plume of potentially thundery downpours, Reigate got no showers at all! The capped inversion layer prevented any significant convection.  Despite immensely high forecast CAPES and lifted index, each forecast would predict heavy showers and potential thunderstorms but none would arrive as the last model runs would lower capes and LI.  Below the inversion, with no significant convection to break the cap, cloud simply spread out into dull strato-cumulus formations covering the sky and reducing the warming by the sun and the instability of the lower layer of the atmosphere was therefore reduced.  No cap was busted, no spectacular cumulonimbus were seen round Reigate.  Some occured nearby in Kent and the Channel and running up the N Sea.  Several models (NMM, GFS, NAE) consistently predicted showery rain almost everyday, some of it heavy, yet none arrived.  Other models were nearer the mark and picked up better on the lack of powerful convection beneath the inversion (UKMO, HIRLAM).  So, in Reigate, being so sheltered and pleasant, it never rains but it pause!

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