Super models battle it out over half term weather

February 12, 2013 — Leave a comment

This will be no help at all … but the most widely used weather models are completely at odds over half term weather forecasts next week. The GFS (US) system shows warmer, unsettled Atlantic westerlies blowing back through on a perky jetstream and places a HIGH to the south of the UK bringing in milder SW winds for a time. The ECM model (European) has completely the opposite and fixes a HIGH over the NE and puts the UK firmly back in the fridge with a fierce easterly: snow again for the east. The GEFS model run sits on the fence and puts us somehere in between the two other scenarios. This illustrates how each model has slight in-built bias and it is up to experienced meteorologists to pick the one that works best in each type of weather flow.  It also shows how forecast models for more than 200 hours into the future are sometimes unreliable, can only be used to show broad patterns of developing weather and should be used with caution. Meanwhile, the remainder of this week looks drier (except for Thursday!) for Reigate, a warm front brings sleet then rain on Thursday and a HIGH should build in bringing drier and BRIGHTER weather Friday and into the weekend.  Bring back the sun…Reigate last saw the sun on Monday 9 Feb at 8.30am.

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