The Beast from the East… how long will it last?

December 7, 2012 — 2 Comments

Some models show the cold easterlies continuing through to late December (e.g. CFS graph left) but the GFS sees westerly Atlantic conditions (warmer) breaking through much earlier than that – end of next week infact – and warming things up for a “green” Christmas. As fronts from the Atlantic move in there is a high certainty of considerable snowfalls on the leading edge of any precipitation as the warm Atlantic air meets the frigid cold air sitting over the UK: next Friday 14 Dec could be the first of these snowy Atlantic incursions but that’s a long way ahead to be certain and Reigate may or may not see a big dump of snow as a result.

The Beast from the East – pussy cat or lion? The trend below from the 850hPa temperature forecast for London ECMWF shows a return to “normal” around next weekend (ignore the temperature scale).  It is too early to say which models will turn out accurate but a white Christmas doesn’t look any more likely now just because of this cold snap: there are signs that warmer Atlantic conditions will return before the big day.

london 850hPa for beast from the east

note: the abbreviations are for different computer forecast models commonly used for weather forecasting:

  • ECMWF = The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
  • GFS = Global Forecast System (NOAA)
  • CFS = Climate Forecast System

2 responses to The Beast from the East… how long will it last?

  1. 

    is london going to see any snow at all during that cold beast from the east cold snap?

    • 

      Hi there, thanks for looking at our site! Probably no snow for London, at least looking at current forecasts – we stay cold but largely dry until warmer conditions sweep in from the west late this week (Friday?) – we might usually expect / hope for some snowfall on the leading edge of Atlantic fronts which turns quickly to rain – but even this doesn’t seem to be likely; however… please don’t just my word for it – the end of the week is a long way off and things can change a lot by then – please check Met Office too! Regards, Simon

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s